Florida State faces Alabama on the road on Saturday as Mike Norvell continues the fight-for-his-job tour. FSU has lost nine straight on the road. Can they keep that streak from extending to ten against a very good Alabama team?
Show Notes
Watched the Film of Bama vs Kentucky
Lots of similarities between Kentucky and FSU
UK was leading with just over 3 minutes left in 3Q and lost 45-17
Bama has real weaknesses—this is not Saban’s Bama
But Bama is very, very explosive and can put up points quickly
FSU Defense vs Bama Offense
Bama doesn’t run the ball very well
Doesn’t have a traditional Bama OL
Only 3.88 YPC vs Kentucky (40 carries for 155; 4 sacks for 29)
Russell’s legs are a factor; he’s a problem if you let him get to the edge
Russell is still on the slow side making decisions
Had an up-and-down outing at Kentucky: 16-23, 188 (8.2), 1 TD 2 INT
They’re still protecting him a good bit schematically
You can trick him a bit and he will throw INTs if you can get him in the wrong situation—doesn’t always feel pressure, either.
Bama’s WRs are really good
Ryan Coleman-Williams (1)
Rico Scott (7)—really dangerous, thick, explosive
Lotzeir Brooks (3)
Game looked a lot like an FSU game—Bama did some damage on third down (5-11, including some longer ones)
In terms of FSU’s matchup, Bama has a significant weakness on the OL interior at center and left guard—FSU needs to exploit that
They also struggled with edge pressure (field reduction in particular)
Problem is that they’ll also periodically hit big ones downfield against FSU’s coverage
I think FSU is able to limit them pretty well, I just don’t trust them to be able to hold up without key busts
Bama had 5.44 YPP vs Kentucky
I think somewhere around 5.75 YPP is realistic at home against FSU (4.74 last year)
FSU Offense vs Bama Defense
This is where I think the game gets decided
Bama’s defense dominated Kentucky (seven of their 17 points was on a short pick-6): 3.27 YPP
Despite them only giving up .09 YPC vs ECU and 1.97 YPC vs Kentucky, I do think you can run on them a bit; the plays were there
Their pass rush is very good and will get home—long yardage is death for FSU
But their secondary is very good, and I’ve seen little indication that Daniels will be able to do much in that department
The one thing that works in FSU’s favor is that Daniels has played against Kane Wommack’s Bama defense before and had some success (Auburn had 5.48 YPP and scored 20 vs Bama last year)
I expect FSU to try to make this into a slugfest like they did vs SMU—run it and don’t turn it over
Daniels needs to run it more aggressively and better
FSU needs the outside WRs to make a couple big plays to have a chance in this one
I expect FSU to wind up with around 5 YPP in this game as they have periodic success on the ground but not enough consistency
Summary and Prediction
I think FSU can keep this relatively close through three quarters, I just don’t see them winning this game
No indication they can win on the road
No reason to think they’ll be able to throw it well enough to cause Bama problems
Secondary busts likely to give up key yardage and scores
More of the same, though I do expect to see continued fight, though Bama pulls away late
Alabama 37, Florida State 17
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And as an aside - I absolutely loved the camera angles that the ABC broadcast was showing the last few minutes of the 1st half before the second "lightning" stoppage occurred. They were basically only using the over-field cameras since they had apparently told their camera operators to go and take a break after lightning had been reported in Mobile. It was great being able to see all 11 defenders and all 11 offensive players for most of the play (particularly pre-snap).
By the way - Norvell basically gave away any chance of winning this game via some middle-school-like clock management after returning from the second weather delay. He had to figure out a way to finish out the 1st half with that 21-13 lead and then retake possession via the 3rd quarter kickoff. But in typical Norvell fashion he did not - alot of that caused by his zero instincts QB - and ended up somehow trailing at the half versus leading. Truly amazing.